Model-based cost estimation for factories: A holistic approach to planning, construction and operation
by Franziska Wagner, Dr. Lisa Lenz, Alexandra Nestorowicz & Marcel Potthoff | 12.März 2026
Industrial production is under increasing economic pressure. Geopolitical uncertainties and challenges in international trade are dampening growth in the German economy and leading to continued volatility in industrial production and order intake. One example of this is the 3.6% decline in manufacturing output in June 2025 compared with the same month last year. In such an economic environment, secure investment decisions are becoming increasingly important for companies.
A key indicator for evaluating investments is return on investment (ROI). It serves as a benchmark for the economic evaluation of projects in both strategic and operational management. However, studies show that the uncertain assessment of ROI is one of the biggest obstacles to investment decisions. If projected costs or expected profits cannot be reliably determined, the likelihood of an investment being implemented decreases. This uncertainty may contribute to the decline in the number of completed factory buildings.
A major reason for this situation is that there is currently no holistic approach to determining costs over the entire life cycle of a factory. A lack of transparency in investment and operating costs can lead to a distorted assessment of economic efficiency. The aim of the approach presented here is therefore to develop a model-based cost calculation that systematically integrates investment and operating costs and creates a sound basis for investment decisions.
Existing approaches to the economic evaluation of factories
Various approaches already exist in factory planning for the economic evaluation of planning alternatives. One example is the VDI 5200-4 guideline, which describes a methodical approach to extended profitability analysis. The aim of this method is to evaluate planning variants holistically by taking into account not only monetary cash flows but also non-monetary target variables. These include, for example, adaptability or employee orientation, which can be systematically converted into monetary variables. This supports a comparison of variants in factory planning.
Other approaches deal with the evaluation of life cycle costs and sustainability aspects. For example, a holistic life cycle analysis aims to record investment and operating costs together with environmental impacts such as energy consumption or emissions. Here, too, the focus is on decision support in the selection of planning variants.
Another approach concentrates on forecasting the life cycle costs of manufacturing technologies in early planning phases. The focus here is particularly on the energy and maintenance costs of production facilities. The aim is to be able to compare technological alternatives at an early stage, even if it is not yet possible to determine the exact costs at this point in time.
Other research projects are attempting to integrate life cycle costs into digital factory models. This makes the cost implications of decisions in production planning visible at an early stage. In some cases, databases or IT architectures are being developed for this purpose, linking cost models with simulations in order to forecast cost indicators over time.
What all these approaches have in common is that they are designed to support investment decisions. However, there is currently no standardised cost structure that enables property-specific and model-based cost calculation. Costs are often viewed as aggregate figures or structured on a project-specific basis, which limits their comparability.
Standardised cost calculation in construction
In the construction industry, DIN 276 has been an established standard for structured cost calculation for many decades. The standard defines terms and principles of cost planning as well as the structuring of costs into different cost groups. This enables a uniform classification of construction costs and improves the comparability of projects.
At the first level, DIN 276 comprises eight cost groups, which are identified by three-digit numbers from 100 to 800. These include costs for land, building structures, technical installations and outdoor facilities. Ancillary construction costs and financing costs are also taken into account.
The cost breakdown is divided into further levels in greater detail. At the second and third levels, the individual cost groups are further specified so that costs can be precisely allocated to individual components of a building. This allows a building to be viewed as a complex system of different components whose costs can be systematically recorded and controlled.
While DIN 276 focuses primarily on the investment costs of a building, operating costs must also be taken into account for a holistic assessment. For this purpose, the VDI 2067-1 guideline offers a structured procedure for determining the operating costs of technical and structural facilities.
The guideline distinguishes between capital-related, demand-related, operating-related and other costs. It also provides tables with average useful lives and expenditure values for maintenance, inspection and repair. These values make it possible to realistically forecast operating costs at an early stage of planning and to include them in economic assessments.
Model-based cost calculation with BIM
Digital methods are playing an increasingly important role in construction project management. One key method is Building Information Modelling (BIM), in which a building is represented as a digital model containing comprehensive information about its entire life cycle.
In the context of cost planning, this approach is referred to as model-based cost estimation or 5D planning. Information from the digital building model is linked directly to cost data. Quantity and measurement data such as areas, volumes or lengths can be automatically derived from the model and assigned to the corresponding cost groups.
An important component of this method is the use of component libraries or manufacturer-specific databases. These contain pre-stored cost parameters that can be automatically incorporated into the calculation. Additional attributes such as material properties or technical requirements enable more precise adjustment of the cost values.
A major advantage of model-based cost determination is that cost information can be continuously updated as planning progresses. Changes in the digital model have an immediate effect on cost planning. This allows target/actual comparisons to be made and potential deviations to be identified at an early stage.
In addition, model-based cost determination enables simulations and forecasts of cost development throughout the entire course of the project. It is therefore an important tool for ensuring that cost, schedule and quality targets are met in construction projects.
Systematics of factory elements
In order to enable model-based cost calculation for factories, a structured system of factory elements must first be developed. Factories are complex systems whose components interact with each other and contribute jointly to value creation.
Systems theory provides a suitable basis for structuring this complexity. It enables a factory system to be divided into different hierarchical subsystems. A key distinction is made between the production system and the logistics system.
The production system comprises all units directly involved in value creation. These include, for example, manufacturing and assembly equipment. These operating resources represent technical facilities, devices and systems that are necessary for carrying out production processes.
The logistics system forms the link between the individual production units and organises material flows within the factory and to external interfaces. Within the logistics system, various sub-processes can be distinguished, including handling, storage, transport, order picking and packaging.
In addition, disposal processes play an important role, as waste and residual materials must also be processed within the factory. The corresponding technical equipment can also be considered logistical operating resources.
In addition to internal operating resources, external operating resources must also be taken into account, such as leased or rented equipment. These can be treated differently in terms of costs than company-owned equipment and must therefore be considered separately in the cost structure.
Extension of DIN 276 for factory planning and factory operation
To enable a holistic view of factory costs, DIN 276 has been expanded to include additional cost groups. A new cost group has been introduced at the first level: cost group 900 for factory operations.
This cost group comprises several sub-areas. These include the production system, the logistics system, administrative structures and software solutions. This expansion means that, for the first time, production facilities, logistics facilities and digital systems can also be systematically integrated into the cost structure.
In addition, additional cost groups are being introduced for factory planning. These include preparatory measures such as feasibility studies or profitability analyses, as well as various specialist planning for factory layout, production logistics, operating resources, and production IT.
In addition to investment costs, operating costs are also systematically integrated into the cost structure. These include, for example, personnel, material, and energy costs, as well as costs for maintenance, repair, and modernisation of equipment. The structure is based on existing guidelines and enables a life cycle-oriented cost analysis.
This expansion creates a consistent cost structure that combines investment and operating costs and enables model-based cost determination for factories.
Summary
The planning and construction of factories increasingly requires precise economic assessments, as investment decisions must be made under uncertain economic conditions. While DIN 276 already provides an established standard for cost determination in the construction industry, it is not sufficient for the assessment of complex factory systems.
The approach presented here extends the existing cost structure to include factory elements and operating costs, thus creating a basis for life-cycle-oriented cost assessment. The integration of production and logistics systems as well as operating and planning costs enables a more comprehensive representation of the actual costs of a factory.
In combination with model-based planning methods such as BIM, this results in a transparent and comprehensible cost structure that takes into account both investment and operating costs. This allows the economic impact of planning decisions to be made visible at an early stage.
The expansion of DIN 276 thus represents an important step towards standardising cost calculation in factory planning and creating a basis for sound investment decisions.
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